Lee v Holiday
Stephen Few would be proud. Excellent time series comparison over 2 very good pitchers, but who is the best consistently? Seems to be Roy in this case, which really does not surprise me, since he dominated the Red Sox for so long in Toronto (but at least those games were pretty short). The question is who do you want to go in a game 7, some one who is consistent, or someone who, when hot, it better than everyone (Verlander needs to get out of D-Town).
However, I would have like to seen something that compares year over year to see if there is some sort of trend as the season goes along. Seems to me as well that in 2008 they were essentially the same pitcher.
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ReplyDeleteFor game 7: Depends on the quality of the other team's pitcher... If both your two options are better on average than the other team's pitcher then you want the more consistent one. If they're worse than the other team's pitcher on average then you maximize your chance of winning with the inconsistent one...
ReplyDeleteVery true, so by that logic what would be the thought process of the Sox and the Phillies? I think also it depends on time off. If the #1 is going on 3 days versus the #2 on regular rest, I think that has some logic to it as well. Then there is the fact that it is all hands on deck, so the second one falters, the other comes in.
ReplyDeleteIf the sox are pitching beckett or lester in game 7 then I think they're close enough to equal that it wouldn't matter which one the Phillies pitched. Or, other factors would swamp the decision, like, as you mentioned, the rest factor, or who handles big games the best etc.
ReplyDeleteI am a little skeptical on the lefty righty split thing. Look at Ortiz, he supposedly could not hit lefty, but this year, he has "owned" them. I also think national league teams are at the disadvantage since they normally do not have a DH
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